League Table 2015/16

Interestingly this would've been ridiculously close. 

If we'd won them all we'd currently be 6th equal with Victory going into the last game each, with them playing Roar at home and us playing WSW at home - but M.City wouldn't be catch-able in 5th due to superior goal difference.

I'm surprised, I thought it would be more assured than that - Patrick's simulations suggested as much too. 

Interestingly this would've been ridiculously close. 

If we'd won them all we'd currently be 6th equal with Victory going into the last game each, with them playing Roar at home and us playing WSW at home - but M.City wouldn't be catch-able in 5th due to superior goal difference.

I'm surprised, I thought it would be more assured than that - Patrick's simulations suggested as much too. 

Current simulated chance of us making the top 6: 0%.

You're not factoring in that we would have taken points off Victory, Glory, City etc if we had won all our games. Thats what pushed our offs of making the playoffs 100% if we won all of our last 6 games, not just the fact that we would earn 18 points.

If CCM had won half the games they lost they would have been in the top 6.

The table is a fair reflection of how good or bad the season was for each of the teams.

That's not the point that is being made, they are just comparing the accuracy of the program that Patrick wrote with what reality ended up being.

No doubt, but as I said that is not the conversation being had.  The conversation is that people here (and software) predicted that if we won all our remaining  games we would 100% be in the top six, and looking in hindsight would that have been the case or not, and if so then by how much.

if we won 100% of our games we would win the league

Stop being facetious. The context here is that we are talking about predictions which were made post the WSW game when people thought we might have an upswing of form. It's a purely hypothetical situation, with people asking at that point how many games would we need to win to be top six? Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we know how many points we needed and therefore can take a guess as to the accuracy of those predictions.

Central Coast Mariners 2 Newcastle Jets 4

		P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
	Adelaide United	27	14	7	6	17	49
	Brisbane Roar	26	14	5	7	9	47
	Western Sydney	26	13	6	7	9	45
	Melbourne City	27	13	5	9	19	44
	Perth Glory	26	13	4	9	11	43
	Melbourne Victory	26	11	7	8	7	40
	Sydney FC	26	7	10	9	-4	31
	Newcastle Jets	27	8	6	13	-13	30
	Wellington Phoenix	26	7	4	15	-18	25
	Central Coast	27	3	4	20	-37	13

Whether or not it is the point, the fact remains that the table tells it all. 

If someone from the UK just arrived and looked at the league he must see that the bottom three four are the worst sides-- surely.

So that's us 9th then... nothing to play for tomorrow, etc.

and as i say a pointless meaningless discussion.  If pointing that out is being facetious so be it.

So, I wrote a little script to simulate the rest of the season to work out the chance that the Nix will make the playoffs if they reach a certain number of points. I used the distribution of goals scored by the home and away team from 2000-2013 in the top 4 Euro leagues to generate a score for each team in each match, and worked out what it would do to the table. Reason I used that data is that it was easily accessible on the internet.

You can have a look at my code here: https://gist.github.com/42ae44a0e9d119e25190

Here's the results after I ran the simulation 1,000,000 times:

22 points: 0.00%

23 points: 0.00%

24 points: 0.00%

25 points: 0.00%

26 points: 0.00%

27 points: 0.00%

28 points: 0.00%

29 points: 0.00%

30 points: 0.08%

31 points: 0.95%

32 points: 4.57%

33 points: 15.89%

34 points: 36.16%

35 points: 63.26%

36 points: 87.53%

37 points: 96.16%

38 points: 99.78%

39 points: 0.00%

40 points: 100.00%

Note: the reason why 39 points is at 0% is that it's impossible for the Nix to finish on that number of points. 5 wins 1 draw = 38 points, 6 wins = 40 points.

Deriding someone else's discussion because you personally decide it is pointless, talk about pathetic. 

A few of us discussed this 2 months ago, I just re-visited it to test out how accurate the conclusions were at the time.

Pretty harmless to be fair. 

i am a nix fan.  Therefore I am Pathetic.  Gareth said so

Most of us don't know much about football anyway

Why put the goal diffrrences, i want to see goals for and goals against. Co e on Fever bot, next season, make it so.

63 goals. Shark! That is impressive.

in the meantime... 

Adelaide (Rnd 1-8) P8 W0 D3 L5 GF 7 GA 17

Adelaide (Rnd 9-27) P19 W14 D4 L1 GF 38 GA 11

In 19 games, Adelaide only conceded 11 goals. Can someone please point out to Gareth that defence wins titles?

Expert tip: you need a good defence AND players that score goals.

I'm availiable for the coaching job.

And what about pretty football?

Attack wins matches, defence wins championships. It's a cliché but it's so true.