Phoenix Analysis

It's the first major news article immediately after the game though, surely the game on Sunday finished too late to have any news content.

I suspect that this is one of your 95% posts mate, and I can see the humour in your reply... but in case anyone else reads it seriously...

You are wrong.

I can see how you might come to that conclusion.

However, I listened to these guys. They were NOT euro-snobs. They go to All Whites games. They were interested in the ASB Premiership too.

I was genuinely puzzled. Before I even mentioned the Phoenix I had listened to them talk about football in quite soem detail for about 10 - 15 minutes. Most of it (but not all of it) was about the EPL, (but some of it was local) ... But it wasn't your standard EPL euro-snob type of discussion. It was very sophisticated analysis of transfer strategies, team depth, managerial emphasis etc. They really knew about and had also obviously played or still played football.

I listened and I waited to see if they would mention the Phoenix - since I was sitting there in Phoenix gear. But they didn't. 

So then, and only then did I ask them. There answer, if you look at what I wrote is they absolutely do NOT have "no interest in local football". And that was the point of my post. These guys were absolutely the type of fans we've been discussing lately. The football populace who are not fanatical about the Nix. They come to games, just not all the time. They are interested but not hooked.

It was really interesting talking to them about it.

No, it was serious.

1. Crap venue for watching football, yet they go to watch the AWs?  Is there a better venue in Wgtn?  I bet you if they went to a game they wouldn't all be down at the front "close to the action".

2. Food and drink is a weak cop out.  Unless you're aim is to go to a footy match to drink lots of piss or have a gourmet meal.  Is it any better for any other sporting event?

3. Why is it all about the YF and not the football?  Actually out of all the three feeble excuses this one is probably the closest to a real reason.  Unless there are capos in other parts of the stadium it will be the FZ that sets the tone for atmosphere.  However when there are larger crowds other groups do start up their own chants.  Whatever it's all a bit circular.

I still think they are a bunch of c*nts.

Fair enough.

I agree their reasons can be argued away.

I thought it was interesting that their reasons were not the reasons people here had concluded were the most important factors.

But if you know a bit about football and someone comes up and asks why you don't go to the one professional team on your doorstep, would you give a range of excuses or just admit that you onlywant to watch winning teams.

2009/10 crowds. I rest my case.

This line with your profile pic is gold!

I can't say what _I_ would say in that situation. I can't imagine not watching the only professional team on my doorstep, sorry.

What we are seeing in this discussion is the difference between Reasons and Excuses.  The cricket people are putting forward their excuses for not going.  They are not the real reasons - they are much more complex (J82 may have part of the answer, but not all of it).  

Irrespective, we should not ignore the "excuses" as they can be a barrier in building reasons why people WANT to go (and that's about buzz, being part of something cool, local pride things etc, of which results is only one part, and negative press is a blight).

If you've got the bug for it you'll go. If you don't and it turns out the Heart will smash us 5-0 when you do ehh.

Back at it after being sick - Have gone into a new gear - added some maps and graphs to go with more in-depth stats, while I also talked about Kenny Cunningham, Fred De Jong and (one of my favourite topics) the media, of course. 

Have a look: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/11/08/phoenix-p...

Seems now you've joined the meedja N-Bomb, nobody's noticing you!

On the site tonight - Who leads the Nix in tackles? Clearances? Completed passes? Passing percentage? Stat-heavy article, will have the numbers on every Nix player to have taken the pitch so far this season.

New column, the most statistically nerdy one I've written yet.

I complied all the stats to rank all the Nix players in the following categories:

Tackles attempted

Clearances

Touches

Interceptions

Crossing percentage 

Fouls won

Shots

Shot assists

Completed passes

Passing accuracy

Hopefully there's some things of interest! http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/11/17/phoenix-s...

I guess that really does illustrate the role that A-Rod plays for us. Largely unseen but will be scapegoated by those not really 'watching'

And considering that he hasn't even been been playing full games some of those numbers are even more impressive.

Interesting stuff indeed - keep up the good work N-Bomb!

Probably should be per 90min - not totals

Also, you can get more stats when looking at the lineups from the match reports from the HAL/'Nix website (look at player comparison widget):

http://www.wellingtonphoenix.com/matchcentre/Adelaide-United-v-Wellington-Phoenix/753814#widget-match-day-tabs

Agree, you must be blind no to see that, he has constantly ball contacts, I think he does some solid work in the mid. It just does not look fancy. I remember him a few times showing up in the six yard box after a crossing for tapping in, I'm surprised he has not scored yet.

Latest column - some extended thoughts on the Burns/Brockie dynamic (Are they playing in the wrong positions) and questioning the Phoenix's refusal to sign defensive imports (Is it the right move?): http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/11/24/phoenix-p...

Column: Looking at context behind statistics after the Phoenix's 5-1 win over Melbourne City (And much more): http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/12/01/phoenix-prognosis-melbourne-city/

Stat-heavy piece today - Why the Phoenix were bound to regress after finishing their chances at an unsustainable rate, and why "Shot Assists" deserve to have a larger part of the footballing vocabulary: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/12/14/phoenix-p...

"Were bound to regress"?

Not sure if those regression lines were of just the Tards and the Nix or all the teams in the competition.  Would make sense if it was all teams as then you would have those that have high conversion rates being balanced out by those with low conversion rates.

How a team performs in an individual season is quite independent of the league as a whole.

If you're referring to this: 

Then what it shows is how over a season, the yellow and blue lines (Nix and Victory) are nearly 100% certain to end up within the 25-32% range by the end of the season, as that is where the majority of the league ends up with few exceptions.

So yes, technically the Nix are bound to regress over the length of the season as no team has ever converted at a rate of over 50%.

I think either you've misinterpreted the graph or I've misinterpreted your point (Or both!). 

Enjoyed your analysis N-Bomb. I think it reinforces the feeling I had that yesterday was just one of those days where the chances just don't go in. They happen occasionally and I don't think you can read much into them until they're happening week after week.

I think you are confusing the statistical term "regression " with the behavioural term.

Statistically the team would tend towards a regression line (or trend). However other than previous experience, what do you suggest is the reason for the trend? 

(Saying it is unsustainable is not a reason)

Ah, sorry J82 I missed your post - I plan to crack into it again in another post after Burns continues his stellar form so I'll try explain my theory there.

This week's offering - An updated look at the Phoenix's statistics - have adjusted some of the stats per 90 minutes as well, such as touches per 90 minutes, completed passes per 90 minutes, gives a good look at who has been the most productive Nix players when on the ball:

http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/12/23/phoenix-p...

Nice work mate. Enjoyed the read and the stats.

Good stuff Niall. Thanks

Cheers guys. Going to work on a piece probably for Tuesday - looking at the Nix's success rate in scoring goals from corners. Could be some interesting numbers, I hate to think how low the ratio or percentage is going to be

Have we ever scored from a corner or set piece (apart from Leo)?

Pretty sure Dura scored one off his genitals from a corner in Christchurch a couple of years ago

The results are in - All the statchat about corners that you can handle. (It's not pretty reading): http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/12/29/corner-ch...

Yes of course.  Last season.  Not quite a toe poke, but definitely a poke.

Next question is, how often do other teams score from corners? I don't think many teams score off them regularly in the A-League?

Thanks Niall. Couple of comments:

• We think we are dire at corners/free kicks resulting in goals, but can you provide the same stats for other A-League teams to see how dire we are?

• "Oh, that reminds me. Should penalty takers be allowed to tuck away the rebound if the keeper parries the penalty? An argument could be made that it rewards incompetence, and that the ball should be up for grabs for anyone but the penalty taker." How is this incompetence and not a good guess/research on the part of the keeper? The ball is live so it is fair game for anyone.  The penalty taker has and advantage in terms of being inside the area, but other players are free to follow up as soon as the ball is kicked.
  

To be honest I'm happy if a corner kick finds one of our players let alone a goal.

For the people wanting comparisons - They are in the works. It's just quite a hefty procedure so I thought I'd post this one first and work on the others when I have time. Want to compare the Nix to a team who the general consensus see as a "good" side from corners, ala Stoke in the EPL, had the Mariners raised as potentially being that team so will take a look at their figures tonight.

Top work!

However it really only needs to be the A-League teams.  Comparisons to teams from other leagues is not overly relevant (if you wanted to do this an aggregate for the league might be better).

Yeah I intend to, was just using Stoke as a comparison for a squad which conventional wisdom says is good from corners. Have had the Mariners and Perth tipped out as those teams so will look at their conversion rates and see how they stack up against 2 goals since the start of last season.

Really interesting.

There are a few articles online about the effectiveness of corners, such as this one:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/...

I used to think it would be a good idea to have corner duels instead of penalty shootouts to decide games still tied after extra time until it was pointed out to me that you could be there for days...