All Whites' Oceania/Asia Confederation Conundrum

I'll stick this here, just for some reminder of one reason why moving to Asia is highly unlikely. No business (and NZF is a business), is going to turn down the upcoming prospect of easy FIFA money (making a 48 team WC regularly just being the top team in OFC), and gamble that easy bet, against moving to AFC with a much less chance of making future World Cups and that FIFA windfall. Though yes with a 48 team WC AFC will get 8 spots, up from current 4.5. But being amongst top 8 teams in AFC, will always be less guaranteed than being 1st in OFC.

On just that analysis alone (never mind all the other stuff, like AFC not wanting us, underage/Ferns teams losing their easy WC qualifying pathways etc etc), NZF would be sadly crazy to try move to AFC. This future 4 yearly almost guaranteed financial windfall will help all levels of NZ Football.

Again I have hope some sort of AFC/OPFC Nations League can be played over 2023/2024. With some meaningful quality H&A games for the AWs. But yes NZF to remain in OFC.

And yeah with no expensive international activity for the various teams, through all of 2020 & most of 2021, NZF actually ended up in a better financial position. But without a 2022 WC qualification windfall, that NZF Reserve will start to decrease quickly (as all teams return to travelling & playing) - unless FIFA give NZF some nice cash as co host 2023 WWC.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/nz-teams/128249468/all-whites-playing-for-15-million-windfall-as-well-as-place-in-tough-world-cup-group

NZ Football finished 2020 with total reserves of $8.7m, matching the high mark it reached in 2013. That figure was budgeted to fall to $6.2m at the end of 2021.

If the All Whites weren’t to qualify for this year’s World Cup, there wouldn’t be the chance for a major windfall to top the reserves up until the next men’s World Cup, in 2026.

Qualification for that event will only require New Zealand to finish top in Oceania, as the region’s best side is set to automatically secure a place at what will then be an expanded 48-team event, a change that should pave the way for great financial stability at NZ Football.

It no longer makes sense to join Asia, with the prospect of significant and regular cash injections from attending the WC, you'd hope NZF will be in a strong position to support the game at all levels in nz and to give the top men's and women's teams opportunities to play more games in between each WC cycle

Yeah if OFC is going to get at least one guaranteed spot at the big table from now on then there's no motivation to force the move to Asia. The dream is more meaningful games for the All Whites though so that's where a combined Asia/OFC nations league like Coochie suggested would be amazing. But baring in mind the fixture against NZ is probably a big deal for a lot of the OFC sides and a true chance to test their strength much like our exciting intercontinental playoff every 4 years. So it would be a bit mud to take that away from OFC. If we do get more windfall money regularly it would be cool to use some for the occasional hosting of some 4 team mini tournaments against competitive opposition  maybe, like that one we went to India for a few years ago 

It depends what you’d value more, more frequent friendlies away to the likes of Bahrain, Jordan with (almost) guaranteed World Cup appearances and likely group stage exists, or home qualifiers against the likes of South Korea, Japan and Australia with less guarantees around the big dance. It’s all hypothetical but this whole thread is so we’ll flog a dead horse anyway.

OFC and AFC can’t combine to one thing for geographical reasons, so if it ever did collapse then you’d have to split Asia east/west, I’d say India would be the boundary. With 48 teams you’d split the 9(+2 playoffs) AFC/OFC spots into 5.5 and 4.5, which way I don’t know. West Asians/Arabs would probably be happy not to play Japan, South Korea, Australia, and vice versa. Would mean your direct rivals would those big three, China, North Korea, Vietnam and ASEAN, on top of existing OFC.

Youth WC appearances would drop, but those are, at least in my opinion, overstated in NZ player development. Players don’t suddenly play 4 games against Honduras, Norway, Uruguay and Colombia and become better, that’s a result of development as a youth player, and club environment. Even so, you’d get your qualifying games against the Asian teams to prove whether they can kick it anyway. The tournaments do help in scouting of players onto higher levels, but ultimately the cream rises to the top regardless, so the players will eventually wind up at an appropriate level.

It’d also allow for an actual meaningful continental competition. Once FIFA canned the Confeds, NZF gave up on the OFC Nations’ Cup, to the point that they weren’t planning on sending the senior team to the 2020 edition and instead using it as Olympic prep, with Des taking it instead of Hay. This was for a tournament being held in New Zealand, not even one in the islands that no one would want to play in. Instead you’d have 30 odd countries and genuine interest/competition as to how a team would compete, as opposed to the current forgone conclusion obligation.

It would also help out the situation that the Phoenix are in of being in two confederations and yet none. They would simply become a member of this new confed, and operate in the same way as Swansea does for example. It’d allow them access to all international comps, and also possibly open the door for additional NZ teams down the line. 
 
The fact is though, travel times from Asia to NZ, let alone the islands, is probably more than to Doha/Dubai, so there’s no real advantage to point out there. There’s also a lot more revenue through sponsorship and broadcasting rights to be made by partnering with Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Iran than with Tahiti, PNG, Fiji. You could also argue they’d miss the competitive aspect of West Asia, but in terms of WC places, Japan, Korea and Australia would have to have a disastrous era not to be top 8 in the region, so reducing it to 4/5 and adding NZ and the rest probably wouldn’t dilute it too much.

I doubt the OFC nations would want it either. The revenue created probably wouldn’t be significantly more than what they already operate on. Plus, unlike us, they have their competitive balance, in that for the most part they are pretty well matched, bar the smallest four, so they don’t need to look elsewhere for meaningful matches. It also damages their World Cup hopes, they currently get 2 spots at youth WCs, and if they persist with a one-off final for WC qualification, then all it takes is a perfect storm of inhospitable tropical climate, NZ having a few key players out, and a dogged performance and they are at the World Cup. In any Asian comp they wouldn’t stand for one-off matches like that, so their chances would drop massively.

Either way, you need an exceptional circumstance for anything to instigate a change. An OFC team losing by double digits at a World Cup, a complete falling out of relations between East and West Asia etc, point is, I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Rock Hopper

Yeah if OFC is going to get at least one guaranteed spot at the big table from now on then there's no motivation to force the move to Asia. The dream is more meaningful games for the All Whites though so that's where a combined Asia/OFC nations league like Coochie suggested would be amazing. But baring in mind the fixture against NZ is probably a big deal for a lot of the OFC sides and a true chance to test their strength much like our exciting intercontinental playoff every 4 years. So it would be a bit mud to take that away from OFC. If we do get more windfall money regularly it would be cool to use some for the occasional hosting of some 4 team mini tournaments against competitive opposition  maybe, like that one we went to India for a few years ago 

Rock Hopper

Yeah if OFC is going to get at least one guaranteed spot at the big table from now on then there's no motivation to force the move to Asia. The dream is more meaningful games for the All Whites though so that's where a combined Asia/OFC nations league like Coochie suggested would be amazing. But baring in mind the fixture against NZ is probably a big deal for a lot of the OFC sides and a true chance to test their strength much like our exciting intercontinental playoff every 4 years. So it would be a bit mud to take that away from OFC. If we do get more windfall money regularly it would be cool to use some for the occasional hosting of some 4 team mini tournaments against competitive opposition  maybe, like that one we went to India for a few years ago 

My hope is NZ stay in OFC with the normal OFC qualifying H&A in last 18 months or so of a 4 year WC cycle. 

But in that first 1-2 years of the cycle you play a combined OFC/East Asia Champions League, with various different divisions like UEFA, CONCACAF & CAF (Africa now have). Each division about 6 teams, with pro/rel between the divisions, and a final. So would take about 5 FIFA windows (2-3 games each window) to complete the tourney 

Hopefully AWs in top division play Socceroos, Japan, Sth Korea etc H&A. Fiji, PNG, Solomons etc are playing in the lower divisions against India, Indonesia, Laos or whoever. Difficulty would be AFC fitting in around their Asian Cup & WC qualifying programmes.

But I see the next Asian Cup (China) is as early as June next year. So are AFC planning a Nations League to start after that? Before their Stage 1 WC qualifying presumably starts sometime 2024?

With this idea OFC basically as it is now. No change to OFC WC qualifying. It's just that in the first 2 years of a 4 year cycle (normally a wasteland for the AWs of a few friendlies) there would actually be meaningful games played including in NZ. And that’s the big bonus, actual good quality games in NZ! Games that hopefully mean something as AWs try to make the final of their division or avoid relegation to next division down. You may not get ever Euro based player making themselves available, all the time. But you’d get most, esp since so few of them have now played a big game in NZ for the AWs. Nov 2017 is already a long time ago

Note pre Covid Infantino/FIFA were very very keen on this Global Nations League format. With 8 top teams from the various Nations League meeting for their own mini WC tourney (basically replacing the Confeds Cup). There were some mystery backers (same backers as proposed expanded 32 team CWC) offering huge cash. So FIFA very keen, but to make it work all the Confederations need to have their own Nations League. CONMEBOL, AFC & OFC as yet don't have them.

And of course lately the talk has been of a biennial WC, which hopefully is just talk, as that still won't bring the AWs to NZ any more often - which is really what well want.

Biennial WC looks dead and buried. Gut feel is this will be good for AWs, and FIFA will now resume its plans for a Global Nations League, that can hopefully include OFC teams somewhere

Maybe a GNL type comp can be launched without UEFA and CONMEBOL ie CAF, AFC, OFC and CONCACAF but it would likely then have limited broadcaster value. 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/world-game/300558411/why-fifas-hold-over-world-football-is-under-serious-threat

coochiee

Biennial WC looks dead and buried. Gut feel is this will be good for AWs, and FIFA will now resume its plans for a Global Nations League, that can hopefully include OFC teams somewhere

Maybe a GNL type comp can be launched without UEFA and CONMEBOL ie CAF, AFC, OFC and CONCACAF but it would likely then have limited broadcaster value. 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/world-game/300558411/why-fifas-hold-over-world-football-is-under-serious-threat

This could actually become even bigger than this article suggests.  While their motives would be financial rather than altruistic, these confederations could effectively push a "less is more" model that gains real traction.  Most fans are not fans of a biennial WC, or expanding to 48 teams, but FIFA does it anyway.  If a new entity appeared, that could offer something better/more fan-appealing, while still playing the political game of keeping different areas of the globe happy, it could either pose a viable alternative of force FIFA's hand to fix things up.

FIFA's answer to placating calls for a greater slice of things from outside the traditional power bases has been expansion - hence a bigger World Cup, more places for Asia and Africa and CONCACAF, etc. This has led to the mess we're in now.  But if they, or a new entity, got support for a model of a smaller WC, equitable allocation of places, and (probably most crucially) a tonne of money shared out equally around members, you'd probably get support for it and countries wanting to be involved.  For example, if NZ faced a qualifying campaign that was really hard (ie. 2-3 playoff phases), so knew there was no WC guarantee - but knew that every WC cycle they'd receive $10 million, well, they'd probably live with that, right?!

Sorry, I know it's off topic for the thread, but I found this new development interesting - fully aware that it may actually just become a Euro-Sth American thing that completely cuts out the rest of the world going forward...

Yipe agree it’s a very interesting development. UEFA and CONMEBOL going as far as to open a joint office in London, is definitely a warning to FIFA.

But I’d say many smaller nations  like NZ who only sporadically get to   WCs, will in the cold financial light of day be much looking forward to a 48 team WC, and extra 16 spots getting $10M each or whatever. Even OFC as a whole with 1 spot locked in plus 2nd team going into an extra qualifying tourney - will be a fan. I doubt even FIFA has enough cash to give all approx 200 nations who start WC qualifying $10M a pop

Again at the risk of being a broken record, just hope some sort of joint AFC/OFC Nations League might now might be on the table that biennial WC appears dead. FIFA to basically tell AFC to split for a NL and add OFC to East Asia. Again with no change to the normal AFC and OFC WC qualifying process that happens last 2 years in a WC cycle 

the trouble with these kind of new groups suggesting they'll do better than the current organisation is that it splits the power brokers and you end up with a "super league" scenario. Some want the change and others dont, the only people the end up benefiting are those very rich power brokers and the ones that suffer are the smaller fish like OFC. Inevitably the likes of UEFA and COMEMBOL will get a bigger slice of the pie and more power, keeping their super rich leadership even richer and with more control to get their teams the games they want, when they want them. AFC are very anti OFC, we barely come across their radar. I can't see them considering a merger to have a cross confed tourney for anything. It would be a cost to them with little or no benefits. They'd be more interested in a cross confed with one of the midsize confeds.

All makes sense, just my thinking was this: if this new entity basically have the best teams on earth in their orbit (no disrespect to anywhere else, but that means Europe and Sth America) then they hold leverage.  If they boycott or opt out of FIFA it basically cripples FIFA's product - they could still run a World Cup, but who would watch it and sponsor it etc etc??  So if the new entity decided to run something new, they could technically include anyone who wants to be involved, and create a qualification system that essentially works in their favour while still allowing some "non-them" countries being involved.  And if the cash offset is sweet enough, then plenty of countries opt in.  Sure, you risk a Super League scenario, but if I'm the head of Euro-SAmer, and I'm creating an alternate tournament, and I could feasibly get the audience of Asia and Africa et al connected to my product... it's a no brainer.  And if they can do it by having a World Cup of, say, 24 teams like it used to be, you're just going to have a better product than a 48 team comp. Less is more, better quality, higher revenues, big audience etc etc.  

I'm an idealist, but naively or not, I'm going to enjoy this fleeting moment and the glimmer of hope it offers (no matter how unlikely the reality is).

if this kind of split occurs you'll end up with the big confeds controlling who comes to a world cup, OFC wont even get 0.5 of a space, we'll be required to enter the playoff phase of Asia or South America. Meaning we'll never get to a world cup again and lose out on massive money. Regardless of how bad FIFA is it keeps NZ with the chance to gain big bucks for attending a World cup every 4 years - Especially with 48 teams every 4 years.

It would be very UEFA to cry crocodile tears about the Super League and wanting to “protect the game at all levels”, and then hijack the World Cup because FIFA wanted to help out countries outside of UEFA and CONMEBOL. It’s worth remembering that UEFA doesn’t hate the idea, they hate being cut out of the pie.

UEFA has already changed their flagship event (UCL) to have half the teams coming from the top 4 leagues, and that’s when they’re responsible for the other associations. If they created a global competition, there would be little to no chance of them caring about anyone else. There’d be a token African team, and USA+Mexico, but UEFA couldn’t care less about NZ.

FIFA is duty bound to all member associations, so in theory PNG should get the same voting rights as Germany. This is why the WC is expanding because lots of smaller nations want it, and they don’t really care if the big nations don’t want it. UEFA is only duty bound to its members, so wouldn’t have to operate with thoughts as to how their decisions affect anyone else.

On the other hand, you might get your Asian qualifiers, as everyone scraps for one place at the UEFA World Championship.

theprof

if this kind of split occurs you'll end up with the big confeds controlling who comes to a world cup, OFC wont even get 0.5 of a space, we'll be required to enter the playoff phase of Asia or South America. Meaning we'll never get to a world cup again and lose out on massive money. Regardless of how bad FIFA is it keeps NZ with the chance to gain big bucks for attending a World cup every 4 years - Especially with 48 teams every 4 years.

or, a new model is created where everyone gets a decent chunk of money whether they qualify or not, and we get the epic qualifying path everyone is mourning the demise of...

FIFA could easily create a new funding model with the insane reserves they have, but choose to expand the WC - to its undoubted detriment.  Getting there in 1982 and 2010 actually meant something - can we say the same if it becomes automatic?  I know what I prefer.

Khalil Media

theprof

if this kind of split occurs you'll end up with the big confeds controlling who comes to a world cup, OFC wont even get 0.5 of a space, we'll be required to enter the playoff phase of Asia or South America. Meaning we'll never get to a world cup again and lose out on massive money. Regardless of how bad FIFA is it keeps NZ with the chance to gain big bucks for attending a World cup every 4 years - Especially with 48 teams every 4 years.

or, a new model is created where everyone gets a decent chunk of money whether they qualify or not, and we get the epic qualifying path everyone is mourning the demise of...

FIFA could easily create a new funding model with the insane reserves they have, but choose to expand the WC - to its undoubted detriment.  Getting there in 1982 and 2010 actually meant something - can we say the same if it becomes automatic?  I know what I prefer.

idealism at it's best.
there is no way the current corrupt, self-interested power brokers within FIFA are going to suddenly change the way they've operated since the beginning. 

theprof

Khalil Media

theprof

if this kind of split occurs you'll end up with the big confeds controlling who comes to a world cup, OFC wont even get 0.5 of a space, we'll be required to enter the playoff phase of Asia or South America. Meaning we'll never get to a world cup again and lose out on massive money. Regardless of how bad FIFA is it keeps NZ with the chance to gain big bucks for attending a World cup every 4 years - Especially with 48 teams every 4 years.

or, a new model is created where everyone gets a decent chunk of money whether they qualify or not, and we get the epic qualifying path everyone is mourning the demise of...

FIFA could easily create a new funding model with the insane reserves they have, but choose to expand the WC - to its undoubted detriment.  Getting there in 1982 and 2010 actually meant something - can we say the same if it becomes automatic?  I know what I prefer.

idealism at it's best.
there is no way the current corrupt, self-interested power brokers within FIFA are going to suddenly change the way they've operated since the beginning. 

which is why the idealist in me enjoyed the fleeting glimpse of an alternate reality that an alternate entity could provide, at least in my mind's eye...