Sports betting thread

siac
WeeNix
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I'm sure that there must be other people on this forum who want to discuss odds and strategies on sports betting, particularly on A-League games? I often want to discuss odds and what is good value or not on the main match thread, but feel like most people couldn't care less so would rather keep it to its own thread.

Anyone here bet on the A-League or other markets? I'll start: I feel like 5.7 (betfair) on the Phoenix vs Adelaide this weekend is decent value (and I expect it to move more considering it is currently 6.6 to lay (95% book percentage), and not much market volume as yet.

Edit - mods, could you please change thread title to 'Sports betting thread'... have had a few drinks and got my English a bit bad.

ballane
Marquee
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Love laying a bet sadly all i seem to do is donate as i generally chase the odds.In saying that have done reasonably well on exact score bets over the years.Only use TAB as cant trust myself to have self control if i used an overseas agency.

GET YOUR SHIRTS OFF FOR THE BOYS

pickledmyself
Phoenix Academy
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Love a good bet but in the bad habit of when I get a good win, 'reinvesting' it in silly options I don't know much about. 

newzealandpower
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Used to bet all the time, but with kids and work I felt I didn't have enough time to 'study' and my winnings to a big dip as a result, so I've given it up. Same with poker, you really need to prepare and play a lot to be successful and once you get out of the game it's so hard to get back it.

Plus I've always trusted my instincts more than the math - and that's not usually a winning strategy!

VUW AFC - Victoria University Football for life

el grapadura
Moderator
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Used to bet all the time, but with kids and work I felt I didn't have enough time to 'study' and my winnings to a big dip as a result, so I've given it up. Same with poker, you really need to prepare and play a lot to be successful and once you get out of the game it's so hard to get back it.

Plus I've always trusted my instincts more than the math - and that's not usually a winning strategy!

Otherwise known as 'look, it's fine' strategy.

C-Diddy
Chant Savant
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Used to love the punt but gave it away about 10 years ago after getting a little carried away and losing a substantial amount of money. 

"Ive just re-visited this and once again realised that C-Diddy is a genius - a drunk, Newcastle bred disgrace - but a genius." - Hard News, 11:39am 4th June 2009

siac
WeeNix
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Glad you guys all seem sensible about this - no one should ever bet more than they are comfortable to lose (even if it seems like great value!). For what it's worth, most online exchanges/sports books (not sure about NZ TAB) will let you set things such as max weekly deposits, bets, etc... which I'd recommend anyone sets, regardless of how good you think your self control is - chasing losses is a hard mentality not to have.

siac
WeeNix
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Love a good bet but in the bad habit of when I get a good win, 'reinvesting' it in silly options I don't know much about. 

*cough*... greyhound racing... 

siac
WeeNix
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Used to bet all the time, but with kids and work I felt I didn't have enough time to 'study' and my winnings to a big dip as a result, so I've given it up. Same with poker, you really need to prepare and play a lot to be successful and once you get out of the game it's so hard to get back it.

Plus I've always trusted my instincts more than the math - and that's not usually a winning strategy!

Yeah poker and sports betting are very similar with regards to trying to make a long term profit. Both are beatable long term, but it's only a very small percentage (I'm guessing 1 or 2%) who will be placing a lot of bets and coming out in the positive once you consider rake/vig/commission, etc. 

For a recreational gambler, I think it can be profitable to bet on sports but only if you are very selective about markets you bet on (which means you'll never make big money as you wont see enough good opportunities...). E.g if you bet on each A-League game every week,  unless you are doing a ton of research you are likely burning money, but if you bet on one game every month that stands out as great value (e.g you know their best striker is injured, players will be away on international duty, etc, that the market hasn't adjusted to yet) then it's likely you can turn a profit.

energy24.7
First Team Squad
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i like the A league for upset bets. My any 4 multi for the weekend

siac
WeeNix
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Had some money on Warner at even odds to get less than 46 in first innings... Gotc out for 43... Feels good.

detoxin
Starting XI
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siac wrote:

Had some money on Warner at even odds to get less than 46 in first innings... Gotc out for 43... Feels good.

i put him top scorer in first aussie innings so a little nervous now

Calling all fans in Japan, come down and support the mighty nix in Osaka

http://www.facebook.com/WellingtonPhoenixClubMembersSupportersGroupOsaka

el grapadura
Moderator
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detoxin wrote:

siac wrote:

Had some money on Warner at even odds to get less than 46 in first innings... Gotc out for 43... Feels good.

i put him top scorer in first aussie innings so a little nervous now

Yeah that money pretty much goooone 

detoxin
Starting XI
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el grapadura wrote:

detoxin wrote:

siac wrote:

Had some money on Warner at even odds to get less than 46 in first innings... Gotc out for 43... Feels good.

i put him top scorer in first aussie innings so a little nervous now

Yeah that money pretty much goooone 

unless we bowl them out very quickly.....  

Calling all fans in Japan, come down and support the mighty nix in Osaka

http://www.facebook.com/WellingtonPhoenixClubMembersSupportersGroupOsaka

siac
WeeNix
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Perth paying over $2 on most markets for tonight seems good value - considering our historical record there. Still not going to bet against the nix though! 

newzealandpower
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You're totally right. If you bet with the brain it makes sense.. If you go with the heart then not so much..

VUW AFC - Victoria University Football for life

siac
WeeNix
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Feel like India over $6 is good value right now. Game is closer than people think... NZ favs for sure but not to that extent... Batting 4th on NZ pitches is very hard.  If India set us over 150 it's game on... Over 200 they are favs. 

el grapadura
Moderator
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siac wrote:

Feel like India over $6 is good value right now. Game is closer than people think... NZ favs for sure but not to that extent... Batting 4th on NZ pitches is very hard.  If India set us over 150 it's game on... Over 200 they are favs. 

Batting last on NZ pitches is probably the easiest from anywhere around the world. 

siac
WeeNix
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el grapadura wrote:

siac wrote:

Feel like India over $6 is good value right now. Game is closer than people think... NZ favs for sure but not to that extent... Batting 4th on NZ pitches is very hard.  If India set us over 150 it's game on... Over 200 they are favs. 

Batting last on NZ pitches is probably the easiest from anywhere around the world. 

You may be right... And I'm glad I look stupid with my advice above! Personally I don't remember many 200+ scores chased down in NZ 4th innings... Maybe that's the case world wide though... Would like to see some stats on 4th innings chases worldwide. 
LeighboNZ
Starting XI
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US sports are the way to bet, especially Basketball. No draws.

Additionally, for A League, it's a ridiculously high scoring league - pretty safe to put 1.5+ goals on all games in a multi to boost the payout

"...sure beats doin' stuff."

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