Corona Virus - We're Doomed

As much as I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade I get a feeling that too many people in NZ think that the battle is just about won. IMO thanks to some excellent Govt actions we have won only the first skirmish. Singapore and other Asian nations who thought they were on top of this are now being hit by a second wave. This virus still has a long way to run. The fact is that 99.99% of Kiwis have no immunity to the virus. Until a vaccine is found the virus will continually circulate. I would expect NZ to drop down to level 3 and possibly level 2 but we are in for what the W.H.O calls “stop go mode” , continual spikes reoccurring will force us back to level 4 on occasions. 

It’s a false dream that the various sporting codes have of restarting pro sport this winter. The best the A-league can hope for is a normal resumption in spring with no crowds. Life will not return to normal until everyone is vaccinated. Most likely 12 to 18 months. We should be able to buy a ticket to see the Nix in next years playoffs.

America says China lied; must be true.

Do you have any idea how hard it is to hide 21 million bodies? It's hard enough hiding one.

About 1.48 billion people in China, about 1.6 billion cellphones. Babies must be given phones at birth.

Must hand them out free and not charge connection, call or data fees, or have all the poverty line people in China disappeared now?

Did it occur to anyone that maybe new registration rules mentioned in the article made it it bit more inconvenient to have second phones?

It's not a competition - if China is faking statistics and hiding bodies what does it matter to our or even the US's response?

No it ain't a competition, but when you come to reopen trade and especially air travel, you need a strong element of trust. 

Isn't the trade with China pretty much on-going? And international travel isn't coming back to anything approaching normal for a long time, so none of this is an issue at the moment.

We never stopped trade, if you look at flight tracker you'll see multiple AirNZ flights going to China every day, a mixture of re-patriation flights with cargo and pure cargo flights not to mention all the ships which are still coming.

The reality is we're likely going to have a quarantine in place for a long time.

Cargo and trade has continued, the slowdown of some items was due to China not manufacturing things for a few weeks. Now that they are back up and running manufactured goods should continue. The only thing that could stop ongoing manufacturing will be raw materials not getting to China.

mods take control . oh they did

Yipe but when the decision is made to allow international tourists back to NZ from China or wherever, you want their country of origin to be open & truthful about their national Covid status. Tourism is a massively important sector to NZ, but there will naturally be an element of anxiety amongst some like the elderly, when international visitors start to return. 

The last thing you want is some tourists being abused (potentially racially) or whatever, because their govt has been shown up telling a few porkies. 

I remember when NZ Govt closed the border with China, the Chinese Ambassador in NZ voice her displeasure, saying it was unnecessary. A comment that very quickly, smacked of self interest.

Tourism as we know it won't return until there's a vaccine, there's likely to be an enforced quarantine until then. The boss of Auckland Airport was talking about having a NZ and Australian bubble, Australians make up a third of all international tourists to NZ and NZ makes up the largest group of international tourist to Australia outside of china so if we can get the virus under control in both countries then that makes sense. But you're talking months away before that happens and at least a year before tourists come from China in any great numbers.

Basically what Ryan said. There will be no international tourism here until there's an effective vaccine, and then you will probably need to carry proof of immunisation with you as well. The Prime Minister basically said as much yesterday, and I'm very sceptical of the 'Australian/NZ bubble' idea as well in the context of what she said. That idea was being promoted by the Auckland Airport people, since we're talking about self-interest.

Yep, I'm skeptical too because we have a strategy of getting rid of the virus and they have a strategy of controlling it. We'd have to be confident that they've gotten rid of it and that their border controls are at least as good as ours, and vice versa.

Yep. And the Prime Minister was asked about opening the border with Australia specifically yesterday, and she reiterated that the border is the biggest risk to NZ and that restrictions won't be lifted for some time, and also noted that she and Morrison had not even broached this particular subject yet.

Australia hasn't decided its end-game strategy yet - eradicate; or live with manageable consequences - until sufficient immunity arrives via vaccine/acquired. Worryingly, I read of a report in the Lancet from Wuhan that showed about 1/3 of people who had had thecoronoa, had NO antibodies, ie, no acquired immunity; so not sure what this means for vaccine development. 

Makes sense to work towards Trans Tasman Bubble, as a first step that might be viable in latter part of 2020.

I've been following this since it blew up in Europe, and one thing that I've gathered is that immunity to corona viruses in general (including common colds and SARS) is limited (which is why herd immunity plans seem non-sensical to me). It lasts from around 3 months for most common cold viruses, to up to around 3 years for SARS (although it seems that range can be between 1 to 3 years).

What this basically means is that vaccine/s for this thing will likely be seasonal, just like flu vaccines are. This virus is here to stay, but we'll learn to live and deal with it better with passage of time so that it doesn't paralyse daily life like it is right now.

Green Cabs - Burger King - next

Yep, our flu vaccine is actually a vaccine for multiple mutations of the flu virus that they expect to be in NZ.

Another day of steady, low-ish new cases. Recoveries (728) have exceeded active cases (649) for the first time. Active cases have dropped to the same number as 14 days ago. Still heading in the right direction for elimination of Covid-19. pic.twitter.com/WrzEBha0NE

— John Hart ????? (@farmgeek) April 15, 2020

Don't want to get my hopes up too much but this is very positive.

If I remember the briefing correctly  from some years ago its a combined formulation from 3? of last year flu vaccines from overseas. Which are based on scientific assumptions on the mutation of the year before that's flu strain.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121054345/coronavirus-are-blood-tests-the-future-of-travel

Don't think many countries will be happy to let people in based on antibody tests. Definitely not here.

hope we do not rush into moving down levels as people will think we are beating the virus and then it may spiral back upwards as has been happening in asia. our cases may be slowing but it has not gone away and if an infected person with no symptoms hands you an order at the drive through for your maccas or whatever takeaway of choice then you and your family are in danger.

Based on what Robertson said it seems likely that we're moving down to level 3 for 2 weeks. Level 3 seems the same as level 4 but with the drive through at Maccas.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121082689/new-zealands-travel-bubble-could-include-australia-and-singapore

If possible that would be awesome. Worried about the Aussies, but 

And we have to keep up testing as second and third waves will come 

read somewhere Singapore has had a sudden spike in reported cases mostly from migrant worker hostels. Seems they may have been over looked in earlier checks.

Whoops

Interestingly we were just looking at Singapore for a possible holiday destination once the situation gets better... My wife has been and I'm a sucker for mini- and city-states...
Plus they have a Universal Studios theme park which the kids would love...

Cover up cough - Wash your hands

And it can transfer before any outward signs.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/121110696/coronavirus-new-zealand-government-gives-warriors-permission-to-fly-to-australia

Some government bloke on Q+A just said that Level two will very likely see a return to sport but crowds are unlikely

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FIFA Cheif medical Officer calls for All League cancellation

Vic NPL

It is understood that up to nine of the clubs in the 14-team Victorian top-tier believe the men’s senior 2020 season should be cancelled, although there remains a commitment to staging junior competitions and an openness to a women’s senior competition.

Sauce

If you look at Australia. State by state. SA and WA are actually doing better than NZ at eradicating the covid virus. But the rumours are FFA want to finish the A League season in NSW or Victoria. The two worst effected states !!

If you think moving 10 teams to Adelaide or Perth for the duration is a feasible idea, I dunno what to tell you. You might as well make it Auckland.

Not what Fox would want I imagine. But not the craziest idea, especially if say the NRL season blew apart with a number of Sydney league players getting Coronavirus. 
NSW Govt could then get very cold feet on hosting the remainder of the A League season.

We are only talking about 30 regular season games plus finals, over what 6-7 weeks?

Probably 3-4 grounds max required as long as there is not a long stretch of rain. 
I imagine Perth and Adelaide have a couple suburban type fields with reasonable playing surfaces, well rested by no football of any code over the last few months.
But yeah not a scenario the TV pay masters would desire.

VIC or QLD would be more likely alternatives.

Qld won't be opening borders any  time soon.