Phoenix Analysis

Hey all,

I wanted to let you know about a project I've taken on.

As a sports media consumer, I've noticed that the Phoenix coverage in New Zealand is rather stock standard fare - previews, reviews and individual pieces on players, where they come from, their story etc. Obviously, thats what the reporters are paid to do, and I think by and large they do a fairly decent job at it.

However, what is lacking in NZ media is deeper analysis, and opinion pieces around football. I've decided to try fill that gap, by providing some content which differs from the usual, joining the well-respected Enzo Giordani on his site, in-the-back-of-the.net.

I don't claim to be a football expert, but I aim to provide some analysis by watching the tape, and using footage and stats to make points and back up opinions. (Also there'll be some bad banter amongst, but ignore that).

Regardless of whether you think my pieces are moronic or a must-read, I'm attempting to fill a gap in the NZ football media with opinion and video-based analysis, and instead of being a large spammer, I thought I should start up a thread in which I can post my work.

Anyway, my first piece is about the Nix's defensive struggles last year - what caused them, and whether they can be fixed. Let me know what you think, and whether this is a project worth taking on.

Cheers.

http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/09/10/wellingto...

yeh go for it Niall. Football analyses are always interesting.

All goods, I'll definitely read it. Believe I have that page already book marked..

Hey, I thought it was really good and largely agreed with everything. 

Just a few extra points from me. 

It's not just the midfield but defence really starts as soon as the opposition get the ball. As good a player as Hernandez was, his commitment and fitness in terms of pressing and getting back was pretty poor. However I thought Hysugems, who we have also lost, was actually pretty good at that. Brockie has looked more motivated and energetic in the pre-season so that will help if he carries on. The team has had an extra year now with Ernie, so I am hoping that extra time will help the team defend as a unit better.

Holding onto the ball more obviously results in the defence having less work to do. However committing a lot of players forward can lead to more dangerous attacks on the counter and none of our defenders are particularly quick. If we do start to produce a genuine possession game then defending the counterattack is something I am quite nervous about and think we need to focus on it.

Likewise part of a proper possession game is pressing and that means playing a high line. With the lack of speed of our defenders, it is crucial that they learn when they need to drop. As soon as pressure on the ball is off the backline really needs to drop before an opposition player gets the chance to chip or play a through ball.

I think having Muscat start the season as a back instead of a midfielder is an advantage. He has at times been brilliant in the midfield but over all he has played better as a fullback. Having him seemingly accept that now as his best position should help.

Really enjoyed the article N-Bomb, great work. I think we should be stronger defensively this coming season, mainly through the now apparent strength in depth in midfield rather than the defence itself. Particularly with Gorrin and Bonevacia coming in, alongside a fit Riera. Add in McGlinchley and our midfield looks very impressive and we shouldn't be turning over the ball too much. Up front is where I'm not completely convinced. Hopefully Krishna can put his pre-season form into practice and Brockie can re-discover his shooting boots. I think Burns is a very good signing but not necessarily a man for a hat-full of goals. We again should be decent to watch, hopefully we can round it off with scoring enough goals.

Good stuff Niall, found it very informative. Will definitely be reading in the future.

I think it might have been on the poddy after the Taupo game that the player formerly known as Alejandro Gorrin said he wants to be known as Alex Rodriguez....

Cheers guys. Should hopefully be a weekly thing, a mix of game recaps in a different style to the usual and pieces like these.

Oh and I know that he wants to be called A-Rod or Alex Rodriguez, but I'm just going to roll with Alejandro Gorrin. I can't stand the other A-Rod so I shan't taint the poor guy ;-). Plus, doesn't Alejandro Gorrin sound just so much more exotic? Consider it a purposeful mistake/protest every week.

your version of CGWs "soccer football"?

Ah, good call. Pretty much!

Kind of odd to protest a guys name.

N-Bomb is big on American sports, so 'A-Rod' hasn't got good connotations for him.

There's nothing wrong with Alex Rodriguez

Nice piece N-Bomb (article wasn't that bad either). 

Confirmed a lot of the defensive issues I noticed throughout the season.

We always appear in the goals of year packages, it's just unfortunate that it's us getting scored against all the time.

Good write-up N-Bomb. I think the issues with our set pieces are something which bugged me a lot last year - not just defensively but on attack as well. Hopefully it's something Ernie has worked on in the off-season. We do have a short team which doesn't help matters but it's no excuse for not covering the space just outside the box when you're defending. The ball will often end up there from clearances etc and if there's an attacker there they get an easy shot if there's no one around them. I never understand it when professional teams don't put a man there.

Should be a new article coming in the next few days - going to look at a popular statistic within football nerd circles (I am not part of said circles but have been doing some digging) and see how it relates to the Phoenix's midfield last season.

Number of Spaniards in your midfield? We've doubled that one this season already

New piece coming tonight

New column - I looked at the football stat "Total Shots Ratio" and applied it to the A-League and the Nix to see if it held up: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/09/26/introducing-total-shots-ratio-and-how-it-transfers-to-the-a-league/ 

Interesting. Reckon the salary cap nature of the league is likely to reduce the one sidedness of games, and hence the ratio. even where there is an upset in the EPL between the top and bottom teams, it's usually an undeserved 1-0, where they have been under the pump and scored their only shot. Get the impression that's less likely to happen in upsets in the A-league. 

Nice work Niall. A good read.

Nice work Niall. A good read.

Piece coming tomorrow as a pseudo preview - Phoenix Player POWER RANKINGS!

You will disagree with all of it.

Well unless you claim that Lia is our most important player this year, you're doing better than one blogger out there. 

Only just got around to looking at this, another affect of the salary cap is where the quality of players is. You might have a Xavi creating chances but have a Totori trying to finish them.

Haha! So true. Wasn't it Ifill who said he couldn't believe the variability of standards in the A-League within each team compared to the UK?

Tis a good point, I think the presence of marquee players also have a big effect on the potential data to go down this line of thinking.

FYI - My rankings are done, just gotta flesh out some thoughts and it should be out late this afternoon or tonight.

The Wellington Phoenix POWER RANKINGS! are here, the most powerful of power rankings: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/10/10/phoenix-p...

Hmm... power needs more charge imo N-Bomb. But early days...

Week One Column - I looked at the Nix and the history of the "best squad ever" claim. Plus five thoughts from the Perth encounter: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/10/13/wellingto...

Perennial strugglers Liverpoolfan1 wrote: 

LOL

I've settled on a new weekly column - called Phoenix Prognosis.

I try to look at each week's game and the season at a whole in an analytical, statistical and opinionated way: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/10/20/phoenix-p...

Let me know what you think.

I enjoyed that, good change from the usual after match reports.

Keep doing what you are doing Niall. Very enjoyable perspective.

Cheers guys, should be able to keep it up every week and try provide something different to think about every week

New column: Stats, opinions and generally bad calls from the Phoenix's win over the Jets yesterday: http://in-the-back-of-the.net/2014/10/27/wellington-phoenix-newcastle-jets-aleague/

Great stuff Niall. I was at a cricket game for my team on Saturday. I can;t play due to a broken collar bone, but was scoring. While we were fielding I was sitting with the other team. They were avidly discusiing the last and upcomming rounds of the EPL, in some detail, and with some more sophisticated than average analysis and insight.

After 10 - 15 minutes of this, with me wearing my hoopy and a Phoenix cap, I said; "You guys are obviously into football. Do you go to Phoenix games?" THe answered ranged from "No, not really" to "Yeah, occasionally - maybe 2 or 3 times a season."

I explained that there had been quite a bit of discussion amongsat the Yellow Fever about what would help get crowds along to the Phoenix. And I asked them, what was it that got in the way of them going?

There reasons, in order were as follows:

1. The stadium is WAY too big, and you are so far from the pitch. The Yellow Fever do their best to create a bit of atmosphere, but honestly, it is lost amongst the cavernous emptiness of the cake tin. It's a crap venue for watching football. If only they had gone ahead with the Petone Rec. redevelopment I'd have been there every week.

2. The food and beer at the stadium is awful, and way over priced. (I pointed out that they have recently massively improved this, and urged them to give it another go, and they said that was great news, and that they would.)

3. The Yellow Fever desperately need some new chants. I told them they were in luck, that in the off season a big effort had gone into new chants, that there was a new dedicated Chants section on the Yellow Fever website, including YouTube videos of the chants, with lyrics, and the new chants available in the new Yellow Fever app. They said they would check that out too.

I thought it was interesting that they didn't even hint at anything to do with results, quality of the A League, or quality of the Nix team, which seems to have been the conventional wisdom amongst the invested fans as the things most likely to affect whether the marginal football fan would attend or not.

Interesting. The first one I definitely understand and can see why it would be off-putting, but the second and third responses are intriguing.

I've never found myself needing to buy food from a stadium, partly because they're always ridiculously expensive, but for that to be a reason people don't go is odd in my book. It's not like the game is the length of a baseball or NFL game - why not smuggle some snacks in to see out the 2 hours if you know you'll be that hungry? (Uh, not that I've ever done that.....)

As for the third, part of their reason for not going is because of repetitive chants? Even if you don't like chanting, surely it beats a whole lot of nothingness.

I guess its probably just a small subset of fans who have similar reasons but still, got my attention.

The proof will be if they ever actually come.

I find it interesting that YF was cited as a reason. 

I think for most people buzz will make them come, I know people that went to the playoff against Mexico because they had heard so much talk about the playoff against Bahrain and didn't want to miss a repeat. If we get results people will start talking, and then people wont want to miss it.

I was disappointed to see that 3 news didn't have last nights game in the sports news. They had interviews with Burns, Brockie, and WeeMac during the week in the build up to the game so have no idea why they didn't show the results.

But they do. Every single game - on the Sunday. Can't really expect them to rehash the same goals and clips on Monday night, 26 hours after the game?

These are all bollocks.  They are just Euro snobs with no interest in local football.

I hope you told them they were all a bunch of glory-hunting c*nts and they should go and mutually w@nk themselves every Sunday or Monday early morning in front of Premier League Pass.